Outlook
The key external factors that, in the Bank’s assessment, may affect the Group’s results in the coming periods include:
• Geopolitical and international factors. In the coming months, the macroeconomic and market environment may be
influenced by persistent geopolitical tensions and shifts in international relations among key global economic players.
The situation in the Middle East, including relations between the United States and Iran, remains a source of elevated
uncertainty, particularly in the context of commodity market stability and global energy prices, which may translate into
inflationary pressures. At the same time, discussions concerning security, access to strategic raw materials, and the
growing importance of Arctic regions, including Greenland, may, over the longer term, affect resource policies and trade
relations between the United States and Europe. Additionally, relations between the United States, Denmark, and
Greenland continue to impact the political and economic stability of the region as well as global energy markets. Taken
together, these factors may lead to heightened uncertainty, shifts in capital flows, and a more cautious approach to risk,
indirectly affecting banking sector operating conditions, customer activity, and funding costs.
• War in Ukraine. At the outset, the war in Ukraine had a strong impact on the Polish economy, primarily through higher
energy prices, disruptions in trade, and a large inflow of refugees. At present, the direct effects of the war appear to have
been largely mitigated. Energy prices, although still higher than before the war, remain stable, and Polish industry and
labour market have largely adapted to the new operating environment. The war continues to influence fiscal policy. As in
the previous year, defence spending in 2026 is expected to remain close to 5% of GDP.
• Global economic conditions. According to the January edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, global GDP growth is
projected at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, slightly higher than in the October forecast. The latest IMF report anticipates
a modest acceleration of growth in the United States, from 2.1% in 2025 to 2.4% in 2026, and a slight slowdown in the
euro area, where real GDP growth is expected to ease from 1.4% in 2025 to 1.3% this year. At the same time, the IMF
expects inflation to move closer to central bank targets. Price dynamics are projected to return to desired levels earlier in
advanced economies than in emerging and developing economies. For Poland, the IMF forecasts GDP growth of 3.5% in
2026, followed by a slowdown to 2.7% year on year in the subsequent year. Meanwhile, average annual inflation is
expected to decline to 2.8%, compared with 3.7% recorded in 2025.
• Monetary policy of major central banks. In addition to geopolitical developments, the key factor influencing the pace of
global recovery is the policy stance of the world’s most important central banks. In June 2025, the European Central Bank
(ECB) paused its monetary-easing cycle, and the accompanying communication suggested that, after rate cuts totalling
200 basis points, the easing cycle in the euro area is nearing its end. In the United States, the Federal Open Market
Committee (FOMC) implemented three interest rate cuts in 2025, totalling 75 basis points, lowering the federal funds
target range to 3.50–3.75% in response to weaker labour market data. Market forecasts for 2026 point to a slower pace of
easing, with expectations centred on one or two rate cuts this year. Changes in U.S. trade policy under President Donald
Trump have significantly increased uncertainty regarding the pace of economic growth and inflation in the United States.
FOMC members are currently divided on the future course of monetary easing. At the most recent meeting, three officials
voted against a rate cut, while two preferred to keep rates unchanged altogether.
• Actions of the National Bank of Poland. In December 2025, the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) decided on another
adjustment of the reference rate, cutting it by 25 basis points to 4.00%. In total, the RPP cut interest rates six times in
2025, by a cumulative 175 basis points. We also believe that the monetary policy easing cycle that began last year in
Poland has not yet come to an end. This was explicitly confirmed by NBP Governor Adam Glapiński during his January
press conference, where he stated that the Council currently maintains a dovish stance and that there is still room for
further interest rate cuts in Poland. The outlook for inflation – which, according to the central bank governor, has
declined in a lasting manner – supports continued monetary easing. In this context, we expect the reference rate to be
lowered to at least 3.50% this year, although we see a material risk of a deeper adjustment (by 25–50 basis points) in the
coming months. At present, the market is pricing in a decline of the main policy rate to 3.25% this year.
• Behaviour of the zloty against key currencies. In the second half of 2025, external shocks (including further
announcements on tariff changes) and domestic shocks (such as the presidential election) eased noticeably. As a result,
the zloty stabilised against major currencies in the later part of the year. In Q3 2025, the EUR/PLN exchange rate moved
within a narrow range of 4.24–4.29, and in Q4, it strengthened to 4.21. Solid data from the Polish economy supported the
appreciation of the domestic currency toward year-end. Given the favourable economic growth outlook and the monetary
easing cycle approaching its end, we expect the EUR/PLN exchange rate to remain stable, fluctuating around 4.20. The
main upside risk to this forecast stems from geopolitical factors that could influence capital flows into emerging markets.
• Economic activity in Poland. In 2025, Poland’s Gross Domestic Product increased by 3.6% according to preliminary data.
The main driver of economic activity was domestic demand, which grew by 4.0%, including a 3.7% increase in household
consumption expenditure and a 4.2% rise in gross fixed capital formation. As a result, the contribution of foreign trade to
GDP remained negative, although export data indicate some revival in foreign trade sales. Estimates published by
Statistics Poland (GUS) show that in the fourth quarter of 2025 alone GDP increased by 4.0% year on year in unadjusted
terms (and by 1.0% quarter on quarter and 3.6% year on year after seasonal adjustment). This year, we forecast a slight
acceleration in economic growth, to 3.7%, compared with 3.5% in the previous year. We expect that, in the short term
during 2026, GDP growth may temporarily exceed 4%, supported in part by inflows of EU funds (including the National
Recovery Plan). For 2026, we anticipate a historically unprecedented inflow of EU investment funds to Poland, potentially
amounting to around EUR 40 billion. A particularly strong impulse for investment should come from National Recovery
Plan funds, especially grants. Under the grant component of the National Recovery Plan, Poland is expected to receive a
total of approximately PLN 108 billion, which implies that transfers in the current year could reach nearly PLN 70 billion.
Polish producers should also benefit from an anticipated improvement in economic conditions in Western Europe. Despite
slowing nominal income growth (due to more moderate wage increases), household consumption is expected to
strengthen as inflation and debt servicing costs decline, continuing the trend observed last year. All these factors point to
rising demand for credit in the new year, both from households and businesses.
• Inflation trajectory. In Q4 2025, CPI inflation in Poland continued to slow down. Between October and December, price
growth reached 2.6%, compared with 3.0% in July–September. Net of food and energy prices, core inflation stood at 2.8%
year on year, i.e., 0.4 percentage points lower than in Q3 2025 (3.2% year on year). In the coming months, core inflation
will continue to gradually ease, supported by solid but not overly rapid GDP growth and a slowdown in wage dynamics.
Labour costs are expected to rise at a slower pace, as indicated, among others, by business surveys. Energy prices will
also play an important role in shaping CPI in 2026. A decision by the Energy Regulatory Office will reduce household gas
tariffs starting in July. In addition, developments in commodity markets, particularly crude oil, as well as the USD/PLN